Our key findings include the following:

• More than half a million renters submitted rental assistance applications to the statewide program. About 547,000 renter households applied to the program over its lifespan, and about half of all applications came from Los Angeles county, reflecting particularly high levels of need in that county. Applications surged in the final days of the program, with about 44,000 renter households submitting applications between March 22 and March 31, 2022.

• About half of the program applicants have received assistance. Just under half (48 percent, or 262,894 households) of renters who applied to the program have received assistance, and another 5 percent have been approved for assistance but are awaiting payment. 

• More than 217,000 renters were still waiting for their applications for assistance to be reviewed. The majority (137,361 households) were waiting for their initial applications to be processed, as shown on the Housing Is Key dashboard. Not shown on this dashboard, however, are the 80,212 households who received some rental assistance but need and have requested additional support.

• An estimated 15,000 to 33,000 first-time applicants will still be awaiting review after eviction protections have expired on July 1, 2022. Program applicants have typically waited three and a half months for initial approval and another three weeks to receive payment, though processing rates have accelerated since the end of the program. We estimate it will take more than seven weeks for the remaining first-time applications to be reviewed — sometime between July 4 and 18 2022. This does not include any of the remaining reapplicants, so it is likely a significant underestimate.  

• Denials are increasing, and about 118,000 applicants have been denied assistance. Of the households whose applications have been reviewed, 29 percent were denied assistance, up from 21 percent on March 30. Only 8 percent of denied applicants have incomes above 80 percent of AMI (the program’s eligibility threshold).

• One in three households were facing imminent eviction when they applied. At the time they submitted their application, 179,000 applicants reported receiving an eviction notice or being threatened with eviction by their landlord — an understatement of eviction risk since many renters receive notices while awaiting payment. Native American applicants faced the highest levels of eviction risk when applying to the program, and California’s Black renter households face the highest levels of severe housing burden as well as rent debt, making these groups particularly vulnerable to eviction when assistance is delayed or denied. 

• As of April, after the program closed, 98,000 likely eligible households with rent debt had not applied for assistance. Census data show that among low-income California renter households that found it somewhat or very difficult to pay for household expenses over the last seven days, 51 percent of them — approximately 98,000 households — had not applied for rental assistance.

• The demographics of program applicants and recipients demonstrate that the program is generally reaching the low-income renters and renters of color hardest hit by the pandemic. However, renters whose primary language is not English and Asian American and Pacific Islander renters appear to be underrepresented in the program.

The state’s abrupt closure of the program on March 31 as well as its decision to not provide rental assistance for rent accrued after March (despite the program’s commitment to covering prospective rent) are having harmful consequences. Thousands of low-income households with rent debt were left unable to apply for the statewide program. Renters who did submit their applications in time also face risks. Many have received eviction notices or threats as they await assistance, and the uncertainty of rent relief has added tremendous stress upon already economically insecure families and made financial planning nearly impossible. In addition, applicants who requested assistance for months beyond March but only received assistance through March can now face eviction for April, May, and June rent, even as their landlords receive large payouts from the program for prior months.

Urgent policy solutions are needed to fulfill the promise of the state’s rental assistance program, prevent more Covid evictions, and make an equitable recovery possible. Particularly with the state’s anticipated $98 billion budget surplus, there is no reason not to deliver full rental assistance to all who need it. The state’s current policy ensures vulnerable tenants who meet the ERAP program’s eligibility criteria will be evicted and potentially become homeless, undermining the purpose of the program and inflicting further harm on families. With the state’s worsening homelessness crisis, keeping people who are currently housed in their homes isn't just a sound investment, it’s key to strengthening communities and ensuring the well-being of families.

We recommend that California policymakers: 

• Ensure the Housing Is Key program covers 100 percent of tenants’ accrued rental debt, including debt incurred after March 31;

• Extend statewide eviction protections without preempting local ones;

• Create a fair, transparent process for challenging denials of assistance;

• Institute a permanent program to support renters across the state who are struggling to get by with low incomes and exorbitant housing costs;

• Ensure that rental assistance is accessible to people with limited English proficiency, people with disabilities, and people with limited access to technology; and

• Target rental assistance to communities of color to combat historical patterns of segregation and racial discrimination in housing opportunity.

More than half a million renter households, predominantly those with low incomes, submitted applications to the Housing Is Key program

Since March 15, 2021, when the state began accepting rental assistance applications, more than half a million renter households have applied for relief through the program. Although the total number of applications fluctuates each week (due to the removal of duplicate applications, applications being investigated for fraud, and denied applicants who are appealing their denial), the most current program data shows that more than 547,000 renter households applied to Housing Is Key. This is 15 percent of the 3.7 million renter households living in communities participating in the statewide program.

About half of all applications for assistance were from households in Los Angeles County even though the county is home to only 30 percent of the state’s renter households, reflecting an elevated level of need for assistance in the county.

Through the program, about $2.95 billion in aid has been delivered to struggling renters and landlords, and another $271 million is in the process of being delivered to applicants whose payments are pending. An additional $2.85 billion has been requested by households with applications still under initial review. There has been just over $8.9 billion in total rental assistance requested to date.

There was a surge in applications during the last 10 days of the program: 44,407 renter households submitted applications between March 22 and 31, and about half (21,989) were submitted on March 31, the final day of the program. This surge signals the high demand for the program, as well as effective outreach and support conducted by rental assistance providers and others to get the word out and ensure renters could successfully submit online applications. As the graph of applications below illustrates, applications surged at two other points in the program: first at the end of August 2021, corresponding with the end of the national eviction moratorium, and second at the end of September 2021, which corresponded with the expiration of California’s eviction moratorium on October 1, 2021.

The vast majority of program applicants have incomes low enough to qualify for the program, which might be attributable to the income screening tools provided on the program website. Fewer than 8 percent of all applicants had incomes above 80 percent of the median income of their locality, which was the threshold for federal ERAP assistance and the statewide program. Well more than half of applicants have extremely low incomes that are below 30 percent of the area median income (below $24,850 in Los Angeles, for example).

More than 217,000 households are still waiting to find out if they will receive rental assistance

Among the more than half a million program applications, just under half (48 percent, or 261,894 households) have received assistance, either directly or through a payment to their landlord. Another 5 percent, or 30,009 households, have been approved for assistance and are awaiting payment.

Four in 10 applicants — 217,573 households — are still waiting for their applications for assistance to be reviewed. The majority of these households (137,361) are waiting for their initial applications to be processed. Another 80,212 households received some rental assistance and have requested additional assistance. As Louis Hansen of The Mercury News reported, renters in this situation are at risk of eviction. San Jose’s Ronda Campbell, for example, fell ill at work and successfully applied for and received three months of rent relief from the program. She applied again, but her case has been pending for months. Although she’s still waiting to receive additional assistance, her landlord has sent her an eviction notice.

An estimated 13,000 to 33,000 first-time applicants will still be waiting in line after eviction protections have expired on July 1, 2022

The pace of application reviews has accelerated considerably since the end of the program, as illustrated in the chart below, yet a sizeable backlog remains. To estimate how many applicants will still be awaiting review on July 1, 2022, after the remaining eviction protections have expired, we calculated two projections: A more ambitious scenario assuming the continued accelerated pace of application reviews since January 1, 2022, and a more conservative scenario based on the pace of application reviews since the program began. Based on these projections, there will be between 13,000 and 33,000 renter households with pending first-time applications on July 1, 2022, and the state will complete its review of initial applications sometime between July 4 and 18, 2022.

This estimate does not include any remaining reapplicants, thus the true number of renters still awaiting assistance and at imminent risk of eviction when protections expire will be much higher — potentially more than twice this estimate — unless the pace of approving reapplications drastically increases. In addition, since HCD stopped allowing tenants to request assistance for rental debt accrued after March 2022, these figures do not reflect the number of people who may receive some rental assistance, but will still face eviction for rent owed in April or later months.

Over the program’s lifespan, applicants have typically waited three and a half months for initial approval and another three weeks to receive payment. The pace of delivering rental assistance has improved over time. Whereas households that applied for aid in March 2021 waited an average of 181 days to receive aid payments, that figure declined to 52 days by May 2022.

A growing share of applicants are being denied assistance 

Three in 10 applicants (117,923 households) have been denied assistance. According to HCD, applications are denied if they are ineligible for the program or if the applicant lives in one of the 25 cities and counties running their own ERAP program. But tenant advocates are concerned about a lack of fair process. They report that HCD routinely denies tenants based on confusing notices that say the applicant submitted “inconsistent information.” In addition, tenants who do not speak English are also denied for being “non-responsive” when they are unable to respond to HCD notices sent only in English. Lastly, tenants who don’t agree with the denial decision are not offered any chance to see the documents or information HCD used to deny their application, and HCD does not provide a hearing for the tenant to explain why they should be approved. These issues make the accelerating rate of denials very concerning and suggest that eligible tenants may be improperly denied assistance.

Program data on applicant incomes indicate that a large majority of denied applicants do have extremely low incomes and generally face the same level of eviction risk (at the time of application) as approved applicants. Just 8 percent of denied applicants earn incomes above the 80 percent of area median income threshold, compared with 2 percent of all applicants (see chart above). 

One in three applicants reported receiving an eviction notice or threat from their landlord

The statewide program has prioritized serving renters at risk of eviction, and the application includes a question directly asking renters if they have received an eviction notice or if their landlord has threatened to evict them. 

One in three applicants to the statewide rental assistance program (179,164 out of 547,187 total applicants) reported receiving an eviction notice or being threatened with eviction by their landlord at the time of their application. Given that eligible applicants wait several months to receive payment, a far greater proportion of renters likely face eviction. 

Of these renters at imminent risk of eviction, 81,935 have been paid and another 10,812 have been approved for payment, amounting to more than half of all applicants. Of the remaining applicants at imminent risk, 47,383 are still waiting for approval and another 39,034 (22 percent) have been denied.

Among program applicants, over one-third of Black, mixed race, and white applicants were facing imminent eviction risk at the time when they applied to the program. And while a small number of Native American renters applied to the program overall (4,700), over half of Native American applicants were at risk of eviction at the time when they applied.

Counties in Northern and Central California had the highest share of applicants facing eviction risk; Los Angeles County had the largest number

Among the counties participating in the rental assistance program, counties in Northern and Central California had the largest shares of applicants at imminent risk of eviction when they applied to the program — over half of applicants in Lassen, Modoc, and Del Norte Counties were at risk of eviction. Looking at counties with the largest number of applicants at risk of eviction, Los Angeles (80,169), San Bernardino (13,543), Contra Costa (8,941), and Santa Clara (8,360) Counties rose to the top. Combined, renters at risk in these four counties represent 62 percent of all program applicants at risk of eviction in California.

An estimated 98,000 low-income, eligible households with rent debt did not apply to the statewide program

While there are no perfect data sources describing exactly how many California renter households have rent debt, would be eligible for the statewide program, and have applied to the program, the Census Household Pulse Survey does provide some insight into this question. 

Applicants were eligible for the program if they met any of the following the following criteria for “COVID-19-related financial distress,” including:

• Loss of income caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Increased out-of-pocket expenses directly related to performing essential work during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Increased expenses directly related to the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Childcare responsibilities or responsibilities to care for an elderly, disabled, or sick family member directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic that limit a tenant’s ability to earn income.

• Increased costs for childcare or attending to an elderly, disabled, or sick family member directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Other circumstances related to the COVID-19 pandemic that have reduced a tenant’s income or increased a tenant’s expenses.

The March 30 - April 11, 2022 Pulse Survey indicates that there were 302,199 low-income households in California that found it “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult” to pay for household expenses over the last sevendays. Since this data covers the entire state, instead of the localities participating in the statewide ERAP program, we can estimate that 63 percent of these households — approximately 190,400 households — lived in jurisdictions participating in the Housing is Key Program. Of those 190,400 households, 49 percent (92,369) had applied for rental assistance while slightly over half of those households (98,000) did not apply. This number of households is certainly an underestimate since the question only covers difficulty paying household expenses over the past week while rent relief covers job and income losses over the entire pandemic. 

The fact that the majority of low-income households struggling to meet their basic needs in early April were not able to access rental assistance suggests that the program has not reached all of those in need. It also highlights that low-income families continued to struggle after the program ended on March 31.

Renters whose primary language is not English and Asian American renters appear to be underrepresented in the applicant pool

Since the launch of California’s rental assistance program, low-income renters who suffered job and income losses due to the pandemic have faced numerous challenges accessing relief. These include technological and language barriers, lack of access for tenants with disabilities, difficulty supplying the necessary documentation of income losses, difficulty communicating with landlords or obtaining documentation from them, and fear of landlord harassment/retaliation and deportation or other immigration-related consequences. 

To assess whether California’s rental assistance program is reaching renters with the greatest needs, we compared the racial/ethnic composition of applicants with that of severely cost-burdened renters (those who pay more than 50 percent of their household income for rent and utilities), a population that represents renters at the greatest risk of having pandemic-related rent debt. To approximate the statewide program's service area, we excluded the 11 counties and five additional cities where local rental assistance programs are operating from the severely rent-burdened reference group (see Data and Methods above for the list of excluded places).

This analysis reveals that the demographics of these groups are generally similar, indicating that the statewide program appears to be representative of many of the groups hardest hit by the pandemic rent debt crisis. The two differences are Asian American and Pacific Islander renters, who appear to be underrepresented in the applicant pool, and Black renters who represent a higher share of program applicants.

Renters whose primary language is not English, particularly Spanish-speaking renters and Chinese-speaking renters, also appear to be underrepresented in the applicant pool. Among California renters who are extremely cost-burdened, 51 percent speak a language other than English at home, yet 88 percent of program applicants indicated that their primary language is English on the application form. A significant share of the state’s extremely cost-burdened renters speak Spanish at home (32 percent), yet only 10 percent of applications were submitted by people who indicated that Spanish is their primary language.

As described in our initial analysis, the demographics of rental assistance recipients reflect the demographics of the applicant pool, indicating that the program itself is serving applicants equitably and is not introducing additional inequities. Additionally, our analysis shows that the incomes of program applicants and recipients reflect the program’s targeting: well more than half of renters who apply to and are served by the program are extremely low income.

Urgent policy fixes are needed to prevent more Covid evictions and support the renters hardest hit by the pandemic and structural inequities

Currently, renters with pending ERAP applications have limited eviction protections under state law. But these protections only apply to rental debt that accrued prior to April 1, 2022, leaving tenants who cannot pay rent in April and months beyond vulnerable to eviction. Even these very limited protections expire on June 30, 2022, and tens of thousands of tenants can face eviction in court. Many could lose their homes because of the application backlog and lack of protection in more recent months, exposing families and communities to the cascading harms of eviction and homelessness. Even with temporary protections in place, every day of delay leaves families more vulnerable to eviction and unable to make financial plans. 

In addition to those who are still awaiting rental assistance or need help for months after March, many renters living on low incomes either have been denied assistance or have not even applied for help. These renters have few eviction protections and face extremely limited affordable housing options in a state with high and rising rents that are unaffordable to working-class people.

California expects an unprecedented $98 billion surplus in the next budget year. This surplus represents a unique opportunity to invest in the rental assistance program to protect tenants from eviction — and prevent adding to the state’s homelessness crisis. As the state grapples with the complex and contentious challenge of how to assist people experiencing homelessness, it does not make sense to allow still more families to lose their housing when the state has ample funds to protect them. The state can fully fund the program so that eligible tenants receive 100 percent of their rental debt and can stay in their homes. With the state’s current misguided policies cutting off rental assistance on March 31, rental assistance funds will be delivered to landlords who have already evicted their tenants.

We recommend the following:

• Ensure the Housing Is Key program covers 100 percent of tenants’ accrued rental debt, including rent incurred after March 31 and prospective rent. As this report is released, families eligible for rental assistance who could not pay April and May rent are being evicted, even as their landlords receive massive payouts for prior months of rent. HCD’s refusal to pay rental assistance for months after March 2022 is undermining the entire purpose of the program by ensuring that tenants eligible for assistance are evicted while their landlords are paid. Public funds should not be used to support landlords while allowing tenants to become homeless. 

• Extend statewide eviction protections without preempting local ones. Extending statewide eviction protections while allowing local governments the flexibility to meet the needs of their communities is the most effective way to stabilize vulnerable renters and keep them in their homes while assistance is distributed. Some local governments, including the cities of Fresno, San Francisco, and Stockton along with Alameda and Los Angeles Counties, have passed their own eviction protections for tenants who could not pay rent because of the economic impacts of Covid-19. However, the most recent Covid-19 eviction protection law, AB 2179, blocked those protections from going into effect. Recognizing the pandemic is not over, the state of New York has extended eviction protections through the end of 2022, and California should follow suit. The state’s laws should complement local efforts instead of restricting them. To ensure this, local governments must be given maximum flexibility to pass their own eviction protection laws to meet the needs of their communities. 

• Create a fair, transparent process for challenging denials of assistance. Rental assistance means the difference between a family keeping their home and facing eviction and homelessness. Yet HCD denies assistance without providing any information about the reason for denial and offers no opportunity for the tenant to see the information used in denying their application. Tenants are not provided any kind of hearing where they can explain why they should be approved to the decisionmaker. The unfairness of this process is especially concerning given the drastic increase in denials since the program closed to new applications.

• Institute a permanent program to support renters across the state who are struggling to get by with low incomes and exorbitant housing costs. California was in a housing crisis before the pandemic began, and long-term solutions are necessary to ensure that low-income people can access and keep affordable housing in the communities of their choice. While the rental assistance program has had a rocky start, a permanent program to assist renters in need has the potential to help mitigate the harms that stem from the state’s severe lack of affordable housing. Policymakers should think boldly about how to create an effective and equitable rental assistance program to meet the long term needs of low-income Californians and support proposed legislation, like AB 2817, that will lay the groundwork for long term solutions

• Ensure that rental assistance is accessible to people with limited English proficiency, people with disabilities, and people with limited access to technology. The pandemic has deepened the harms of structural racism on communities of color, who have suffered disproportionate deaths, job losses, and housing instability. Increasing targeted outreach to renters who do not speak English and underrepresented communities of color is imperative to ensure that rental assistance dollars do not further exacerbate the racialized harms of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

• Target rental assistance to communities of color to combat historical patterns of segregation and racial discrimination in housing opportunity. The rental assistance program represented a huge investment of public money and should have provided an opportunity to address longstanding race inequities in access to housing and the overrepresentation of Black people among those experiencing eviction and homelessness. Yet program delays and the abrupt termination of the program undermined its ability to prevent evictions in these communities. Long-term rental assistance programs must be intentionally designed to reach communities of color to disrupt deeply entrenched patterns of discrimination and segregation.

This massive investment of public funds will be wasted if we allow tens of thousands of eligible families to become homeless while waiting for help. By refusing to provide assistance for the months beyond March 2022, policymakers have ensured that tenants will be evicted even as their landlords receive large payouts for earlier rental debt. California’s policymakers must take urgent action to prevent mass eviction and realize the promise of its rental assistance program.

We are grateful to the entire project team that contributed to this research, including Francisco Dueñas and Rae Huang of Housing NOW!; Abbie Langston, Simone Robbennolt, and Gabriel Charles Tyler of PolicyLink; and Justin Scoggins of the USC Equity Research Institute. We thank Madeline Howard of the Western Center on Law & Poverty for her assistance in obtaining the data through a Public Records Act request. In addition, we thank the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the JPMorgan Chase Foundation, The Prudential Foundation, the Salesforce Foundation, the San Francisco Foundation, the Skoll Foundation, the Tableau Foundation, the Target Foundation, and the Truist Foundation for supporting our equitable recovery research and the National Equity Atlas.